Tesla Model 3 Will Jump Again? See What the Chief Auto Analyst Says

At present, we all know the biggest trouble that bothers Tesla - whether its Volkswagen model 3 can be successfully launched in 2017.

A few weeks ago, a "negative report" from Wall Street made many media start to attack Musk's "commitment".

Yes, this report comes from Adam Jonas, chief automotive analyst of Morgan Stanley, a Wall Street supporter of Tesla (you're right), who gives the most pessimistic prediction on the delivery time of Tesla Model 3:

Don't expect musk to make model 3 debut in 2017. The launch in 2018 is the benchmark we give.

However, Matthew Debord, a senior automotive analyst and also a senior traffic reporter, presented a complete set of "evidence" to refute Jonas - for Tesla's third model models, we should not refer to its previous model - to postpone the release of model x for three years:

Firstly, compared with the complex design of modelx, the "mass line" of Model3 determines that its design and manufacturing process will not surpass the former, so it will greatly reduce the production difficulty.

Secondly, it has been proved that all kinds of accessories required by model 3 have been prepared (there is no problem in the production chain at present), and only the two east winds of "transportation" and "assembly" are owed.

Third, the only thing you can learn from modelx is the "listing signal" - generally speaking, you will see musk disclose all kinds of test drive information on Twitter and in public shortly before the launch, and you can also obtain all kinds of sneak photos and videos about modelx on the Internet (these are all marketing means of Model3 before the launch to some extent).

Matthew's whole discussion is full of confidence in musk and his team to achieve their goals, and makes a reasonable judgment on whether musk can realize his promise from a rational point of view. Of course, Musk's personal charm is also unstoppable. After all, all the products it has promised have been successfully listed in the end, isn't it?

The following is Matthew's entire discussion published on business Insider:

We believe that Tesla may be about to enter its best fiscal year ever.

So far, Tesla has delivered about 80000 cars to customers. This is about 30000 more than in 2015. But this is not Musk's goal.

On the one hand, this is 10000 vehicles less than the target set by the company in early 2016. On the other hand, Tesla had to turn its attention to the next milestone for itself: whether the model 3 Volkswagen car can be sold on time.

Last week, Adam Jonas, chief automotive analyst at Morgan Stanley, a strange "prophet" who likes to sing the opposite tune on Wall Street, published a research report on future vehicles. This report focuses on the analysis of model 3 and its importance to Tesla:

"In my opinion, the role of model 3 is to provide financial guarantee for Tesla's higher goal of accelerating the development of safe and efficient transportation tools (that is, increasing production capacity). However, model 3 may still be in the development stage next year (of course, it may also be sold)."

But does this mean that model 3 will be available in 2018?

Then Jonas reiterated a controversial prediction: "we don't expect Tesla to launch model 3 in 2017." Jonas gave an appropriate supplement to this answer:

"We do not rule out this possibility, perhaps in the second half of 2017, because Tesla will make every effort to meet a large number of initial needs. However, we will not take 'model 3 will be delivered in 2017' as the benchmark judgment. Therefore, our benchmark forecast is to be launched at the end of 2018."

"We take such a conservative estimate because we believe Tesla will give priority to whether the quality, cost and performance of vehicles can meet the standards. Although Tesla still adopts a high-level vertical integration model, we still predict that model 3 depends more on third-party suppliers than model s, but this may reduce the controllability of the supply chain."

Jonas has talked about several key issues, but I don't quite agree with him:

First, Tesla wants to launch a groundbreaking model 3. This means that it should have a high "return rate", which can shock you.

However, this does not mean that model 3 must become the second model X - it is a "ticket skipping" model that has been on sale for three years until the end of 2015.

Musk once said that because the design of model x is too complex, manufacturers in the production chain gradually lose patience in the design and production process.

However, the initial design of model 3 was a four door sedan for the mass market (other types of vehicles are mainly compact SUVs). In other words, any large carmaker can easily produce such vehicles.

Second, I can't judge whether Jonas is right about the supply chain. Yes, Tesla has been trying to solve a variety of supplier problems. One of its solutions is to independently produce some parts.

But I want to reiterate that model 3 does not require a very complex design. Unlike ordinary manufacturers, Tesla already has a factory in Northern California and some parts suppliers in the western region. In the southern region, Tesla has reached a cooperative relationship with the U.S. power grid.

In other words, everything is ready and only Dongfeng is owed (even if the transportation time of some parts will be extended due to geographical problems).

To this end, I asked Tesla to verify the authenticity of the news that model 3 was sold at the end of 2017, but I didn't get an immediate reply. However, I still think model 3 will go on sale on time.

Tesla may postpone its launch to early 2018, but I think it will advance. The reasons are as follows:

Model 3 was released in March 2016 (I also attended the unveiling ceremony). Although it was only a prototype car that appeared at that time, these prototype cars were complete and not a concept car that can only be seen and driven.

If the basic engineering design of the vehicle has been completed, the rest of the work is only to complete the assembly in Fremont factory (model s car and model x SUV have been assembled), and the next step is to find suppliers and obtain parts, finally complete the task allocation and train industrial robots to weld the vehicle body, and complete stamping and machine tool installation in the assembly workshop.

This is not advanced rocket technology. Moreover, Tesla has hired a professional production supervisor from Audi. The main purpose is to increase the assembly speed of 100000 vehicles / year to 500000 vehicles by 2018. So this plan is completely feasible.

We will search for all evidence that Tesla can launch model 3 at the end of 17 years based on our previous experience in snooping on the listing of model X.

For example, in the spring of 2017, we may be able to see model 3 field test photos and Related videos produced by Tesla and amateurs.

By tomorrow summer, we should be able to see a model 3 prototype that looks closer to mass production "flash" on the road near Fremont.

When Tesla announced its financial results for the second quarter of next year, as the company's chief test driver, musk, who likes to disclose the wind, should share the driving experience of model 3. (of course, he may also reveal many features of autopilot).

These signs will prove whether model 3 will go on sale as scheduled. In the early stage of sale, automobile manufacturers usually hand over their vehicles to the government for crash testing. At that time, we will get more information.

What are Tesla's advantages in achieving mass production in 2017? Look back at modelx!

Obviously, if Tesla's "performance" next year is inconsistent with the above "indicators", Jonas's conclusion may be right.

However, model x did go through a more tortuous sales process after reaching some indicators (for example, the rear seats were temporarily adjusted before the sales, and the exotic upturned gull wing door was redesigned)

But even so, the car caught the original launch date.

The great improvement of Tesla's key test passing rate has become an important mass production guarantee. At present, Tesla has performed well in selling, manufacturing and delivering model s. After a long wait, model X was officially launched.

In fact, model 3 is a very big test. But musk and his team are well prepared.

The team knows how to make cars, how to make production plans similar to traditional manufacturers' schedules, and is willing to learn from a lot of mistakes.

Of course, I don't think model 3 will be launched in advance. But I would be shocked if Tesla had not established an assembly line by the end of 2017.

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