What Causes the Lack of Core Moisture? in the Short Term, It Is Difficult to Realize Domestic Replac

Who would have thought that the reason why car companies stopped production was that there were not enough chips.

Volkswagen Group, as the world's top seller of fuel vehicles, has stopped production of tens of thousands of vehicles due to "lack of core", and the group has also suffered huge losses.

At present, due to the shortage of automotive chips, Volkswagen is considering asking its suppliers Bosch and continental for damages.

Feng Sihan, CEO of Volkswagen China, said in an interview that due to the lack of chips, esp could not be produced, and about 15000 cars were facing production reduction.

Just last December, the lack of core caused Volkswagen to lose 50000 vehicles in domestic production.

Not only Volkswagen, Audi also encountered the same problem.

Recently, Audi CEO KUs duzman said that due to the shortage of auto chips, more than 10000 employees have taken leave, and the number of production cuts will be less than 10000 in the first quarter of this year.

Not only Volkswagen and Audi, but also Daimler, BMW, Toyota, Nissan, Subaru and other auto companies are also affected by the shortage of chips.

The lack of core is much more serious than expected

Industry insiders said that the impact of chip shortage on synchronous vehicle enterprises is more serious than expected.

On January 24, according to CCTV finance and economics report, affected by the epidemic, the auto industry was affected by the shortage tide in the international chip market.

At present, many automobile enterprises such as Volkswagen, Ford and Toyota have to reduce production to deal with the crisis.

In addition, in order to ensure higher interests, many car companies have made the decision to abandon cars and protect the handsome.

Daimler gives priority to the production of Mercedes Benz S-class and other models with limited chip supply, so as to bring higher profit margin.

Volkswagen Group has also taken similar measures to deal with the chip emergency, ensuring that the chip can give priority to the supply of Porsche's models and Skoda's new pure electric SUV models.

Bernstein research company of the United States predicts that the global shortage of automobile chips in 2021 will cause a loss of up to 4.5 million automobile production, equivalent to nearly 5% of the global annual automobile production.

On the other hand, automotive chip suppliers Infineon, NXP, Texas Instruments, Renesas electronics and other manufacturers said that the recovery of the automotive industry is faster than expected. At present, major enterprises focus on ordering chips, which has also brought great pressure to the supply chain.

The prices of automotive chips have increased one after another

In fact, the problem of core shortage mainly focuses on the insufficient capacity of the wafer factory.

At present, the capacity of wafer factories is mainly divided into 6 inches, 8 inches and 12 inches. Generally, 8 inches and 12 inches are the most widely used.

However, during the epidemic, the demand from consumer electronics, industrial market and automobile soared, most of which needed 8-inch wafers. The surge in demand has led to a continuous shortage of 8-inch wafer capacity in the market.

The shortage tide impacted the upstream and downstream supply chains, and the demand for automotive chips surged, which pushed the supply chain capacity close to the limit, thus pushing up the outsourcing cost. In this case, major chip manufacturers have increased their selling prices.

According to the Hong Kong Economic Daily on January 23, many chip manufacturers, including Renesas electronics and NXP, plan to raise the price of automotive chips by 10 to 20%.

NXP and STMicroelectronics require customers to pay an additional 10-20% for automotive chip products. Toshiba also plans to raise the prices of automotive semiconductors and other products.

Moreover, according to Jibang consulting data, the price of 8-inch wafers in 2020 increased significantly in the fourth quarter, about 5% - 10%. Liandian, world advanced and other companies increased the price by about 10% - 15% in the fourth quarter of last year, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue.

What causes the lack of core moisture?

In terms of the whole industry, affected by the shortage tide, many terminal enterprises placed panic orders, and even the number of orders placed by departmental enterprises was several times that of previous years.

Terminal manufacturers grab chips and manufacturing enterprises grab wafers.

The capacity shortage of 8-inch wafers will last for more than half a year.

According to the business times, the semiconductor packaging and testing capacity was still seriously tight in the first half of this year due to the continuous full capacity of upstream wafer foundry.

With the continuous influx of orders, the investment control capacity of large factories such as rimoonlight has been full. By the second half of this year, the wiring and packaging orders of other companies such as Huatai, Lingsheng and Chaofeng have also been full.

Moreover, in recent years, the market scale of analog chips and power semiconductors has developed rapidly. The development of downstream such as 5g and the Internet of things has also promoted the demand for 8-inch wafers.

According to the global wafer forecast report released by the International Semiconductor Industry Association last November, the number of 8-inch wafer production lines will increase to 202 by the end of 2021, exceeding the historical maximum.

The market is concerned about how long the shortage of 8-inch wafers will last.

In this regard, Zhongtai Securities said that it is expected that the new capacity will alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand to a certain extent, but the demand growth rate will be greater than the capacity growth rate, and the shortage of 8-inch chips will continue until at least the second half of 2021 or even 2022.

The problem of lack of core is not only in the automotive field.

According to Taiwan media reports, as apple, Samsung and other brands plan to launch laptops, tablets and TVs with mini LED backlight display, the demand for mini LED chips has soared, resulting in structural shortage, and some practitioners have raised the price by 5% - 10%.

Shortage and price increase indicate that the demand for mini LED is expected to show explosive growth this year.

In the short term, it is difficult to realize domestic replacement of automotive chips

The lack of core in the international market is a mess. What about the domestic market?

Due to the high technical content of vehicle gauge chips, it is difficult for domestic enterprises to "change" enough chips to supply the whole market in a short time.

As far as the automotive industry is concerned, the volume of the domestic automotive market is very large, and the procurement demand for automotive chips is also more huge.

Today's market problems also reflect the serious dependence of domestic automobile manufacturers on foreign chips.

Automotive chips include MCU, IGBT, MOSFET, sensors and other semiconductor components. In traditional fuel vehicles, the value of MCU accounts for as much as 23%.

In pure electric vehicles, MCU accounts for about 11%, second only to power semiconductor chips such as IGBT.

Relevant data show that China's output value of automotive semiconductors accounts for less than 5% of the world, and the import volume of some key parts is as high as 80% - 90%.

In 2019, the global automotive chip market was about 310 billion yuan, while the domestic automotive chip industry was less than 15 billion yuan. In other words, the industrial scale was less than 5%. In the same period, the scale of China's automotive industry accounted for more than 30% of the global market.

In fact, automotive chips and consumer electronics chips correspond to different application scenarios. Therefore, there are a wide variety of automotive chips, and domestic substitution has made rapid progress in some fields.

From a comprehensive analysis, China first finance and Economics said that the leading companies with price increases superimposed on large-scale links benefited from the lack of core in car enterprises.

Write at the end

In fact, the shortage of domestic chips is mainly concentrated on medium and high-end chips. At present, the supply of fingerprint identification, camera CIS and other categories is sufficient, and there will be no shortage.

Li Shaohua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association and Minister of industry development, once said that although the production of some enterprises was greatly affected in the first quarter of this year, the impact of chip shortage will not be too great for the whole year of 2021.

According to the analysis of China Automobile Industry Association, the reasons for the shortage of chips in some enterprises are as follows:

1. The persistence of the epidemic has led investors to be cautious. In the first half of this year, the chip industry predicted the consumer electronics and automobile markets conservatively, and was not prepared for good market development trends;

2. Driven by 5g, the global demand for chips in the field of electronic consumption has increased rapidly and occupied part of the production capacity of automobile chips, and this trend will further intensify next year. At the same time, the price of chips is also rising gradually, further reducing the production quota of chips in the automotive industry;

3. Europe and Southeast Asia have been affected by the epidemic. Many chip suppliers have to reduce production capacity or simply shut down factories, which further leads to the imbalance between chip supply and demand;

4. With the continuous improvement of vehicle electrification, intelligence and networking, the single vehicle value of vehicle chips continues to increase, which promotes the global demand for vehicle chips to grow faster than the sales of complete vehicles.

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